Back to Search Start Over

Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022

Authors :
Dongsheng Zheng
Dan Tong
Steven J. Davis
Yue Qin
Yang Liu
Ruochong Xu
Jin Yang
Xizhe Yan
Guannan Geng
Huizheng Che
Qiang Zhang
Source :
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2024)
Publication Year :
2024
Publisher :
Nature Portfolio, 2024.

Abstract

Abstract Economic productivity depends on reliable access to electricity, but the extreme shortage events of variable wind-solar systems may be strongly affected by climate change. Here, hourly reanalysis climatological data are leveraged to examine historical trends in defined extreme shortage events worldwide. We find uptrends in extreme shortage events regardless of their frequency, duration, and intensity since 1980. For instance, duration of extreme low-reliability events worldwide has increased by 4.1 hours (0.392 hours per year on average) between 1980–2000 and 2001–2022. However, such ascending trends are unevenly distributed worldwide, with a greater variability in low- and middle-latitude developing countries. This uptrend in extreme shortage events is driven by extremely low wind speed and solar radiation, particularly compound wind and solar drought, which however are strongly disproportionated. Only average 12.5% change in compound extremely low wind speed and solar radiation events may give rise to over 30% variability in extreme shortage events, despite a mere average 1.0% change in average wind speed and solar radiation. Our findings underline that wind-solar systems will probably suffer from weakened power security if such uptrends persist in a warmer future.

Subjects

Subjects :
Science

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20411723
Volume :
15
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Nature Communications
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.225824fdf81c42f9beb1985e2064df34
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48966-y