Regional food and feed self-sufficiency related to climate change and animal density - a case study from the Czech Republic

A new food and feed self-sufficiency model for the Czech Republic (RESTEP) was applied for the evaluation of possible adverse climate impacts uniformly reducing crop production by 5, 10, 20, and 30%. The situation was simulated for the whole country and four different agriculturally important regions. Biomass production modeling confirmed that for the whole country, the food self-sufficiency is secured up to 20% of yield decline for most crops, but even 5% yield decline of silage maize would lead to its shortage in animal feeding. On the other hand, regional results vary significantly. Regions Jižní Morava and Střední Čechy shown oversupply of feedstuff allowing them to cover the demands of cattle and pigs up to 20% or 30% decline of yield, respectively. The opposite model represents the Vysočina (VY) region which is not able to cover the demands from own sources even at the baseline scenario. The acreage extension of maize is not possible due to erosion risk restrictions at 25% of arable land at VY. The possible solution consists of extension acreage of alfalfa and clover or finding other plants sufficient for feeding as well for biogas facilities in regions rich in biomass energy consumers.