Exploring the Driving Factors and Their Spatial Effects on Carbon Emissions in the Building Sector

This study measured the lifecycle carbon emissions of buildings in 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020 and decomposed the drivers of carbon emissions in the materialization stage and operation stage of building, respectively, using the Stochastic Impacts with the Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model in order to investigate the drivers of carbon emissions and their spatial influence effects in the building sector. The spatial Durbin model (SDM) was used to thoroughly investigate the spatial effects of carbon emissions and their drivers in the building sector under geographic and economic distances. According to the findings, China’s building sector has a high concentration of carbon emissions in the east and a low concentration in the west. There is also a sizable spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial spillover effects in the materialization and operation stages shift in opposite directions. To help the building sector to achieve the carbon peaking and neutrality goals, specific policy recommendations are made based on the study’s findings.