A future-oriented analysis of the European defence industry and its repercussions in the Spanish one

The new defence policy of the European Union (EU) is forcing the defence industry in Europe to adjust its strategies, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. Both the European Commission and the European Defence Agency (EDA) are pushing for a European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB), taking account of factors that include the fragmentation of supply chains, the significant efficiency gains that can be made and the prospect of greater EU strategic autonomy. In the industrial field, particularly in the area of technology, it will change the shape of the European defence industry. But what direction will this new industry take? Will national oligopolies be reinforced at the same time as other European oligopolies emerge? Drawing on an empirical analysis based on interviews with experts, this paper focuses on Spain as a case study and explores the repercussions it will have on the country’s defence industry.