Back to Search Start Over

SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Authors :
Archisman Mazumder
Mehak Arora
Vishwesh Bharadiya
Parul Berry
Mudit Agarwal
Priyamadhaba Behera
Hemant Deepak Shewade
Ayush Lohiya
Mohak Gupta
Aditi Rao
Giridara Gopal Parameswaran
Source :
F1000Research, Vol 9 (2020)
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
F1000 Research Ltd, 2020.

Abstract

Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases.

Subjects

Subjects :
Medicine
Science

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20461402
Volume :
9
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
F1000Research
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.2c0406fe78114557958e04b6916bd7fa
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.23496.1