Prediction of water level at Huayuankou station based on rating curve

Abstract The construction of large reservoirs has modified the process of water and sediment transport downstream, resulting in changes in the morphology of the river cross-section. Changes in water and sand transport and cross-sectional morphology are reflected in the rating curve at the cross-section. This study analyzed the variations in the rating curve at the Huayuankou (HYK) section and their influencing factors, and conducted water level predictions based on this relationship. The findings revealed that while the annual mean water level has shown a declining tendency over the past 20 years, the annual mean discharge has shown a constant pattern. The rating curve at this stretch narrowed from a rope-loop type curve in its natural condition to a more stable single curve as a result of the construction of the dam upstream of the HYK section. The effect of pre-flood section morphology and the water–sediment process on the scattering degree of the rating curve is inverse; increasing roughness and hydraulic radius decreases scattering degree, while increasing sand content and sand transport rate increases scattering degree. Using the measured data from 2020 as an example, the feasibility of predicting cross-sectional water levels using the rating curve was verified. The prediction results were accurate when the flow was between 1000 and 2800 m3/s; However, when the flow was between 2800 and 4000 m3/s, the forecast results were typically slightly lower than the measured values. Overall, the method demonstrates good predictive accuracy. Insight from the method can be used to predict water levels to better inform decision making about water resources management, and flood emergency response in the lower Yellow River.