Stability Analysis of Unmixing-Based Spatiotemporal Fusion Model: A Case of Land Surface Temperature Product Downscaling

The unmixing-based spatiotemporal fusion model is one of the effective ways to solve limitations in temporal and spatial resolution tradeoffs in a single satellite sensor. By using fusion data from different satellite platforms, high resolution in both temporal and spatial domains can be produced. However, due to the ill-posed characteristic of the unmixing function, the model performance may vary due to the different model setups. The key factors affecting the model stability most and how to set up the unmixing strategy for data downscaling remain unknown. In this study, we use the multisource land surface temperature as the case and focus on the three major factors to analyze the stability of the unmixing-based fusion model: (1) the definition of the homogeneous change regions (HCRs), (2) the unmixing levels, and (3) the number of HCRs. The spatiotemporal data fusion model U-STFM was used as the baseline model. The results show: (1) The clustering-based algorithm is more suitable for detecting HCRs for unmixing. Compared with the multi-resolution segmentation algorithm and k-means algorithm, the ISODATA clustering algorithm can more accurately describe LST’s temporal and spatial changes on HCRs. (2) For the U-STFM model, applying the unmixing processing at the change ratio level can significantly reduce the additive and multiplicative noise of the prediction. (3) There is a tradeoff effect between the number of HCRs and the solvability of the linear unmixing function. The larger the number of HCRs (less than the available MODIS pixels), the more stable the model is. (4) For the fusion of the daily 30 m scale LST product, compared with STARFM and ESTARFM, the modified U-STFM (iso_USTFM) achieved higher prediction accuracy and a lower error (R 2: 0.87 and RMSE:1.09 k). With the findings of this study, daily fine-scale LST products can be predicted based on the unmixing-based spatial–temporal model with lower uncertainty and stable prediction.