Public health events and economic growth in a neoclassical framework

Abstract Public health events (PHEs) have emerged as significant threats to human life, health, and economic growth. PHEs, such as COVID-19, have prompted a reevaluation for enhanced regular prevention and control (RPC). In this study, we focus on the core concept of prevention and control intensity (PCI), and establish a neoclassical economic growth model from the long-term and macro perspective to balance life protection and economic growth. The model construct the mechanism of PCI on economic growth through population dynamics and capital accumulation under the backdrop of RPC for PHEs. We find the conditions for PCI when the economy achieves steady state, and provides an algorithm establishing the optimal strategy that maximises per capita disposable income based on the optimal PCI and consumption. Simulation result quantifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between PCI and capital per capita, output per capita and consumption per capita in the steady state. The model suggests that, given the PHEs of inducing potential unemployment shock, it is worthwhile to combine the implementation of moderate PCI with coordinated policies of income distribution.