Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high temperature in a changing climate from 1990 to 2019: a global analysis

Abstract Background With global climate change, the health threats of ambient high temperature have received widespread attention. However, latest spatio-temporal patterns of the non-communicable diseases (NCDs) burden attributable to high temperature have not been systematically reported. We aimed to analyze vulnerable areas and populations based on a detailed profile for the NCDs burden attributable to high temperature globally. Methods We obtained data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study (2019) to describe the temporal and spatial patterns of NCDs burden attributable to high temperature globally from 1990–2019. Then we analyzed the differences by region, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Finally, the age‑period‑cohort (APC) model was utilized to explore the age, period, and cohort effects of NCDs mortality caused by high temperature. Results In 2019, the number of deaths and Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from high-temperature-related NCDs was about 150,000 and 3.4 million globally, of which about 70% were in South Asia and North Africa and Middle East, and the burden was higher in men. Among 204 countries and territories, the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were observed in Oman and United Arab Emirates, respectively. The global burden showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of 3.66 (95%CI: 3.14–4.18) for ASMR and 3.68 (95%CI: 3.16-4.21) for ASDR. Cardiovascular diseases were the main contributors to the global burden of high-temperature-related NCDs in 2019. The age and period effect in APC model showed an increasing trend globally. There was a significant negative correlation between SDI and both ASMR (r = -0.17) and ASDR (r = -0.20) from 1990 to 2019. Conclusion There was an increasing trend of the global burden of high-temperature-related NCDs. The burden was likely to be higher in males and the elderly, as well as in countries and regions with less economically and socially developed and in tropical climates. Surveillance and prevention measures should be implemented with a focus on these vulnerable areas and susceptible populations.