Trends and projection of forearm fractures including elbow fractures of the Olecranon in Sweden: an analysis of 363 968 fractures using public aggregated data

Abstract Background Forearm and olecranon fractures are a common orthopaedic injury. This study aimed to analyse whether the incidence of forearm injury is changing and identifying trends in the number of forearm and olecranon fractures using public aggregated data in Sweden. Methods The number of forearm and olecranon fractures as defined by the number of registered diagnoses with the ICD-10 code of S52 were collected and normalized per 100,000 inhabitants and stratified per sex, age, and month. Age-adjusted incidence for forearm and olecranon fractures were calculated using the direct method. Poisson regression was used to analyse monthly, seasonal and yearly change in forearm and olecranon fracture incidence. Logistical regression was used to predict future trends of forearm and olecranon fractures. Results The findings revealed a slight decreasing trend in forearm and olecranon fractures. The average incidence rate during the study period was 333 with women having a higher incidence rate than men. More fractures occurred in the winter months. Fluctuations in the number of forearm and olecranon fractures were observed during 2020 which may be influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on current data, forearm and olecranon fractures are expected to decrease in Sweden by 2035. Conclusion This study describes the trend of forearm and olecranon fractures among individuals according to sex and age in Sweden using easily obtainable data. Trends in forearm and olecranon fractures are dependent on sex and age but generally show a decreasing trend. More precise studies are needed in order to properly quantify the specific incidence of various subtypes of forearm and olecranon fractures and associated risk factors.