Influence of Weather Conditions and the Aphid Population on the Potato Virus Y Infection of Tobacco in the Field

Potato virus Y (PVY) is a major tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) pathogen that causes severe crop losses. We studied the influence of meteorological factors and a population of twelve aphid species on the development of PVY in field-grown tobacco from 1996 to 2010 in Poland. Three PVY-susceptible tobacco varieties were used in the study. The mean virus incidence ranged from 18% in 2010 to almost 99% in 1996, 2004, and 2009. For determining the relationship between tobacco plant infection and meteorological conditions and aphid populations, logistic regression analysis was used. It was found that the probability of PVY infection is significantly dependent on the average air temperature, relative humidity, number of days with an average temperature of at least 25 °C, and the abundance of Aphis fabae and Brachycaudus helichrysi. The probability of infection of tobacco plants with potato virus Y decreased with increasing air temperature and relative humidity. In addition, with each subsequent day with a temperature of at least 25 °C, the risk of infection decreased by 24%. Furthermore, it was often observed that high populations of Aphis fabae and Brachycaudus helichrysi were associated with a high incidence of virus infection in tobacco plants.