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An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century

Authors :
Janaka Bamunawala
Ad van der Spek
Ali Dastgheib
A. Brad Murray
Roshanka Ranasinghe
Source :
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Frontiers Media S.A., 2021.

Abstract

Barrier-island systems, spanning ∼7% of the world’s coastlines, are of great importance to society because not only they provide attractive, liveable space for coastal communities but also act as the first line of defense from coastal storms. As many of these unique coastal systems are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes, it is necessary to consider the holistic behavior of applicable terrestrial and coastal processes when investigating their evolution under plausible future scenarios for climate change, population growth and human activities. Such holistic assessments, also accounting for uncertainties, can readily be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, owing to their much faster simulation times compared to sophisticated process-based models. Here, we develop and demonstrate a novel probabilistic modeling framework to obtain stochastic projections of barrier-island evolution over the twenty-first century while accounting for relevant oceanic and terrestrial processes under climate change impacts and anthropogenic activities. The model is here demonstrated at the Chandeleur islands (Louisiana, United States) under the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) with results indicating that there are significant uncertainties in projected end-century barrier-island migration distance and available barrier freeboard under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5. The range of uncertainties in these projections underscores the value of stochastic projections in supporting the development of effective adaptation strategies for these fragile coastal systems.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
22967745
Volume :
8
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Frontiers in Marine Science
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.37fefcabe4740389eaf891eb062f79f
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.755699