Student mobility in Southern Italy: An empirical analysis of preferential patterns

Abstract This paper presents an empirical analysis aimed at identifying chain migration patterns among university students from Sicily, Sardinia, and Apulia. Utilizing data from the national archive of university students enrolled in an Italian university from 2008 to 2017, we construct origin–destination matrixes and calculate residuals from a log-linear model to detect key student routes. Positive residuals between specific origin–destination pairs that persist over time can suggest significant attraction and potential chain migration. The results support a “large to large” and “small to small” city mobility model, particularly for Sicily and Sardinia. Students from Palermo, Catania, Messina, and Cagliari show strong connections with large cities such as Rome and Milan. Furthermore, results show historical links between Sardinia and Tuscany date back to the 1950s, and the enduring connections between Apulian students and universities in Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, and Lombardy have been evident since the 1970s. In Sicily, mobility patterns towards the Polytechnic of Turin began in the 1970s and persist today. These patterns underscore the influence of prior migrants on the mobility decisions of university students in Southern Italy, highlighting a potential chain migration effect.