The effects of climate change on the risk of cold stress in autumn crop pattern ( Case study : Tropical and subtropical areas of Kerman province)

This research was carried out to evaluate the effect of climate change on changes in cold stress on potato plants in tropical regions of Kerman province. In this study, changes in the occurrence of cold stress in the observation data of three stations of Jiroft, Kahnouj and Manoajan during the period 1981-2005 and the period 2011-2100 were considered as the future period. The future course data, using of the general circulation model CanESM2 under rcp26, rcp45 and rcp85scenarios, using were quantified SDSM software.the climatic indices used to evaluate the changes in cold stress in potatoes were determined by the tolerance thresholds of potatoes and based on the average of long-term climate statistics and was evaluated its probability of occurrence during the growth period. In the Jiroft station the probability of occurrence of premature and late temperature below 5℃ respectively than 83% and 63% decrease. At Kahnoj and Manoajan stations, the probability of occurrence of premature and late temperature below 5℃ in the future period decreased and increased, respectively.The beginning and the end of the incidence of cold stresses have been set at the beginning and end of the cold season.The statistical results indicate an increasing the days of cold stress (5≤T≤0) at the Jiroft station during the periods 2011-2040 and the Manojan Station in the period 2071-2100 compared to the previous period . At the Kahnouj station, decreases the frequency of days with cold stress. However, the days with freezing stress in Jiroft, Kahnoj and Manojan stations in the next climate periods are showing a significant increase.The results indicate that the average date of occurrence of early stages is 10 days earlier and the late stages are 14 days later than the average long-term climate in the study area.