Estimation of Soil Moisture during Different Growth Stages of Summer Maize under Various Water Conditions Using UAV Multispectral Data and Machine Learning

Accurate estimation of soil moisture content (SMC) is vital for effective farmland water management and informed irrigation decision-making. The utilization of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based remote sensing technology to monitor SMC offers advantages such as mobility, high timeliness, and high spatial resolution, thereby compensating for the limitations of in-situ observations and satellite remote sensing. However, previous research has primarily focused on SMC diagnostics for the entire crop growth period, often neglecting the development of targeted soil moisture modeling paradigms that account for the specific characteristics of the canopy and root zone at different growth stages. Furthermore, the variations in soil moisture status between fields, resulting from the hysteresis of water flow in irrigation channels at different levels, may influence the development of soil moisture modeling schemes, an area that has been seldom explored. In this study, SMC models based on UAV spectral information were constructed using Random Forest (RF) and Particle Swarm Optimization-Support Vector Machine (PSO-SVM) algorithms. The soil moisture modeling paradigms (i.e., input–output mapping) under different growth stages and soil moisture conditions of summer maize were systematically compared and discussed, along with the corresponding physical interpretability. Our results showed that (1) the SMC modeling schemes differ significantly across the various growth stages, with distinct input–output mappings recommended for the early (i.e., jointing, tasselling, and silking stages), middle (i.e., blister and milk stages), and late (i.e., maturing stage) periods. (2) these machine learning-based models performed best at the jointing stage, while subsequently, their accuracy generally exhibited a downward trend as the maize grew. (3) the RF model demonstrates superior robustness in estimating soil moisture status across different fields (moisture conditions), achieving optimal estimation accuracy in fields with overall higher SMC in line with the PSO-SVM model. (4) unlike the RF model’s robustness in spatial SMC diagnostics, the PSO-SVM model more reliably captured the temporal dynamics of SMC across different growth stages of summer maize. This study offers technical references for future modelers in UAV-based SMC modeling across various spatial and temporal conditions, addressing both the types of models as well as their input features.