Spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of ecosystem service value and ecological risk in the Ulan Buh Desert

A clear understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecosystem service value (ESV) and the landscape ecological risk index (ERI) can effectively link human well-being and ecosystem security, which is essential for sustainable ecosystem management. Based on multitemporal land use data (1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018), the spatiotemporal evolution of ESV and the ERI in the Ulan Buh Desert was evaluated. The driving forces of ESV and the ERI were quantitatively evaluated by the Geodetector model. The results show that 1) from 1990 to 2018, total ESV in the Ulan Buh Desert increased from 7.00×108 yuan to 11.09×108 yuan. Low-ESV areas accounted for approximately 72.28% of the study area. High-ESV and moderate-high-ESV areas were mainly distributed along the Yellow River and the northeastern region. 2) During the study period, the ecological risk of the Ulan Buh Desert generally decreased; only the ecological risk of the northeastern region improved significantly, and high-risk areas were mainly distributed across sand dunes located in the middle of the desert. 3) There was a negative correlation between ESV and the ERI in the study area, and the main relationship was low value-high risk. 4) Driving force analysis results show that natural and human impact factors jointly affected the spatiotemporal differentiation of ESV and the ERI in the Ulan Buh Desert. Among the influencing factors, the interaction between the distance to a highway and annual precipitation had the strongest impact. The implementation of relevant policies in the study area should be guided by ESV and the ERI, and the protection and restoration of various ecosystems in the study area must be strengthened.