Wheat redistribution in Huang-Huai-Hai, China, could reduce groundwater depletion and environmental footprints without compromising production

Abstract The Huang-Huai-Hai region accounts for 80% of China’s wheat production, leading to severe groundwater depletion and substantial environmental impacts. Here we present an optimization framework for wheat redistribution to reduce both water requirements and environmental impacts without compromising production. Our results show that environmental footprints can be reduced—blue water by 16%, grey water by 21%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 18%—while enhancing resource use efficiency, with irrigation water productivity improving by 21% and nitrogen use efficiency by 11%. Maintaining current production levels is achievable with these adjustments. Furthermore, allowing a 17–18% decrease in wheat production could result in a groundwater depth increase of 9.03–9.38 m by 2030, ensuring sustainable groundwater use. In regions experiencing groundwater depletion, blue water, grey water and greenhouse gas emissions could decrease by over one third. Our findings offer an alternative strategy for promoting sustainable agriculture in regions facing groundwater depletion worldwide.