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Annual Cycle of East Asian Precipitation Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Authors :
Yuhan Yan
Congwen Zhu
Boqi Liu
Song Jiang
Source :
Atmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1, p 24 (2020)
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2020.

Abstract

Annual cycle is fundamental in the East Asian monsoon (EAM) systems, profoundly governing the spatiotemporal distribution of the East Asian rainfall. The present study identified the dominant modes of the annual cycle in the East Asian rainfall based on the Fourier harmonic analysis and the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition. We evaluated the performance of the first two leading modes (i.e., EOF-1 and EOF-2) in historical experiments (1979–2014) of the 21 released climate models of phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Comparing with the observation, although the CMIP6 models yield the essential fidelity, they still show considerable systematic biases in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle, especially in east and south China. Most models exhibit substantial phase delays in the EOF-2 mode of the annual cycle. Some specific models (BCC-ESM1, CanESM5, and GFDL-CM4) exhibiting better performance could capture the observed annual cycle and the underlying physics in climatology and interannual variability. The limited fidelity of the EOF-2 mode of the EAM annual cycle primarily hinders the monsoon variability simulation and thus the reliable future projection. Therefore, the dominant modes of the EAM annual cycle act as the evaluate benchmark in the EAM modelling framework. Their improvement could be one possible bias correction strategy for decreasing the uncertainty in the CMIP6 simulation of the EAM.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20734433
Volume :
12
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Atmosphere
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.461bd2d6dcd84c3eb6b91cfcbd42fbe8
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010024