Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation Using Extended Input–Output Tables for Thailand’s Biomass Pellet Industry

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Thailand’s biomass pellet production were comprehensively assessed, with a specific focus on wood and corn pellets. Employing the extended input and output tables, the anticipated economic and environmental effects of the rising demand for biomass pellets within the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation region, which is projected to see an increase exceeding 33% by the year 2050, were investigated. The estimations of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions, which were conducted utilizing an open Leontief model based on the 2015 National Input–Output Tables, covered each stage of the production process. The results show that emissions from the production of corn pellets are expected to rise steadily, from 52.91 MtCO2e in 2022 to 75.77 MtCO2e by 2030, whereas emissions from wood pellet production are set to increase more substantially, from 210.30 to 301.18 MtCO2e within the same timeframe. Data derived from surveys and interviews with corn farmers and wood pellet manufacturers informed the lifecycle data for the biomass pellet supply chain from cradle to gate. The findings suggest that Thailand’s power sector could benefit significantly from the biomass potential in the northern part of Thailand, which boasts an estimated energy content of corncob at 39 ktoe (0.0016 TJ). Market demand scenarios were explored in two forms: one where it was assumed that all biomass pellets are to be exported to Japan and South Korea, expecting a combined demand of approximately 560,262 tons by 2030, and another positing that 10% of production will be reserved for the domestic market, with a forecasted annual increase of 10% from 2020 to 2050. This paper highlights the need to prioritize low-emission renewable energy sources, expand technologies with lower lifecycle emissions, optimize the biomass supply chain to enhance efficiency, and introduce sustainable energy practices. The detailed GHG emissions analysis provides critical insights for policy formulation, underscoring the importance of sustainable transitions in the context of increasing biomass demand.