Soil moisture-constrained East Asian Monsoon meridional patterns over China from observations

Abstract As an internal forcing of the earth climate system, soil moisture (SM) significantly influences the water and energy cycle by controlling evapotranspiration and terrestrial solar energy. The current study used observed precipitation, remotely sensed SM, and reanalysis of atmosphere and land parameters to assess the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) precipitation variability due to meridional SM oscillations across China. A generalized linear method, namely coupled manifold technique (CMT) for assessing the reciprocal forcing between two climate fields and numerical simulations are applied to SM and EAM precipitation. We find that the EAM precipitation interannual variability between north and south China significantly correlates with SM meridional oscillation. The CMT results further showed that SM forcing has a significant (99% confidence) influence on the EAM precipitation explaining about 0.40 of the variance ratio in north and south China. The EAM and SM composite analysis show that the wetter (drier) north (south) oscillates the EAM precipitation over the north (south) of China and vice versa due to SM thermal controls. We then used control and sensitivity simulations with SM observations to further validate the findings implying that SM can potentially improve the interannual EAM forecast skills. The model results show that a wetter (drier) north (south) results in negative (positive) sensible heat (latent heat) anomalies that impact the boundary layer and propagate to change the meridional atmospheric heating profile. When positive (negative) SM anomalies exist over northern (southern) China, the zonal easterlies and extratropical westerlies move to north China causing above-normal precipitation that descends into southern China, suppressing subtropical westerlies and precipitation in southern China. On the contrary, a dry (wet) north (south) favors intensified subtropical westerlies and precipitation in southern China. The findings have dire implications for the water and energy cycle of the region in the projected wetting and drying patterns of the north (south).