Quantitative assessment of seismic hazard for the territory of Uzbekistan according to the estimated maximum ground oscillation rates and their spectral amplitudes

In the territory of Uzbekistan, seismic activity is high, and ensuring seismic safety of the population is among the most important problems for the country. Our study was focused on discovering relationships between the attenuation of the ground oscillation rates, their spectral amplitudes and the distances to the epicentres of the earthquakes of different energy levels, which took place in the region under study. An objective was to quantitatively assess the seismic hazard of the study area. We analyzed the velocity graphs of M 3.8–6.2 earthquakes that occurred in Uzbekistan and the neighbouring territories, and the recorded earthquake spectrum data. For the region under study, it is established that the attenuation of the ground oscillation rates and their spectral amplitudes depend on the distances. Taking into account the sizes of crustal earthquake foci, the spectra of ground oscillation rates were calculated for the near zone. Based on the established regional dependencies, the maximum ground oscillation rates and spectral velocity amplitudes were estimated, and seismic hazard probability for the territory of Uzbekistan was assessed. For several towns and cities of Uzbekistan, the highest predictable spectral amplitudes were determined, which, under given probability P, will not be exceeded within the coming 50 years. The quantitative characteristics of seismic hazard can be converted to the indicators of seismic activity impacts, as required for calculating the seismic loads in earthquake-resistant engineering and construction projects.