Uncovering the coupling relationships and key factors linking ecosystem services to human well-being through system dynamics: A case study in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The synergistic development of ecosystem services (ESs) and human well-being (HWB) is of utmost importance for the construction of sustainable development. In this study, we focus on the provinces of Qinghai and Tibet as our research area. To measure the value of ESs and HWB, we employ the per unit area value equivalence method and the Human Development Index method, respectively. Based on the feedback relationship between ESs and HWB, we establish a system dynamics model that considers economic, social, ecological, land use, and policy influencing factors. This model enables us to conduct multiscenario simulation predictions and system dynamics sensitivity analysis, aiming to explore the main factors driving the coupled relationship between ESs and HWB. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the value of ESs in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau generally increased, from 6049.49 billion CNY in 2010 to 6210.65 billion CNY in 2020, with generally higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, and local high-high and high-low aggregation patterns. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the HWB index in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau exhibited a continuous rise, from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2020, indicating substantial development potential. (3) The system dynamics model established in this study demonstrates effectiveness with high fitting accuracy. From 2021 to 2050, the HWB index in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau displays an upward trend in all five scenarios, while the value of ESs shows a declining trend under the economic development priority scenario and an upward trend under the status quo, ecological protection priority, social development priority, and integrated development scenarios. Among these, the integrated development scenario proves optimal as it satisfies economic development needs, basic social security, and environmental protection requirements. (4) Grasslands, water areas, and environmental protection investment are identified as the main driving factors in the synergistic improvement of ESs and HWB. And the influence of different driving factors will change dynamically with time. Our study can guide the search for the optimal development model for the synergistic improvement of ESs and HWB in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing a theoretical foundation for future development planning.