Development and validation of the HNC-LL score for predicting the severity of coronavirus disease 2019

Background: Information regarding risk factors associated with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is limited. This study aimed to develop a model for predicting COVID-19 severity. Methods: Overall, 690 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were recruited between 1 January and 18 March 2020 from hospitals in Honghu and Nanchang; finally, 442 patients were assessed. Data were categorised into the training and test sets to develop and validate the model, respectively. Findings: A predictive HNC-LL (Hypertension, Neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, Lymphocyte count, Lactate dehydrogenase) score was established using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The HNC-LL score accurately predicted disease severity in the Honghu training cohort (area under the curve [AUC]=0.861, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.800–0.922; P