The impact of national land supervision system on urban low-carbon transformation: evidence from China

Abstract The land system is a crucial factor influencing urban low-carbon sustainable development. However, previous research has paid little attention to the effects and mechanisms of the national land supervision system (NLSS) on urban low-carbon transformation (ULCT). This study uses China’s routine land inspection as a quasi-natural experiment and examines the impact of NLSS on ULCT using panel data from 283 Chinese cities between 2005 and 2016. The study finds that NLSS significantly promotes ULCT, with a series of robustness checks supporting this conclusion, showing a 1.95% improvement in carbon emission performance in cities under supervision. NLSS mainly facilitates ULCT by improving land use efficiency, upgrading the structural of the service sector, and promoting technological progress. Compared to eastern cities, southern cities, large cities, and non-resource-based cities, NLSS more effectively promotes low-carbon transformation in central and western, northern, small- and medium-sized, and resource-based cities. Additionally, in contrast to cities with high environmental awareness, high marketization levels, high financial development levels, and high fiscal pressure, NLSS more strongly promotes ULCT in cities with lower levels of these factors. Furthermore, NLSS exhibits a significant positive spatial spillover effect in promoting ULCT. In advancing ULCT, NLSS can be synergized with smart city pilot policies and innovative city pilot policies but has not shown synergies with low-carbon city pilot policies.