Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates

Abstract Background Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. Methods We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021–August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( $$S$$ S ), vaccinated ( $$V$$ V ), variant-specific infected ( $${I}_{1}$$ I 1 and $${I}_{2}$$ I 2 ), recovered ( $$R$$ R ), and seropositive ( $$T$$ T ) model ( $${SV}{I}_{2}{RT}$$ S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. Results Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Conclusions Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.