Scope 1, 2, and 3 Net Zero Pathways for the Chemical Industry in Japan

Scope 1, 2, and 3 net zero is a major technological challenge for the chemical industry in Japan, but a failure or even a delay in achieving this goal could result in exclusion from international financing and supply chains. This study presents, for the first time to the best of our knowledge, multiple quantitative pathways from today until 2050 for the chemical industry operating in Japan to reach scope 1, 2, and 3 net zero, using a demand-supply model. Through these pathways, this study aims to provide fundamental and strategic insights into necessary actions for net zero. We demonstrate that, amid possible demand reduction through population decline and advances in circularity, securing access to bio-based feedstock as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS) is essential to avoid a supply limit that could be imposed under scope 3 net zero. Given the uncertainty of Japan’s access to both, the chemical industry should pursue both concurrently, while maximizing recycling. Specifically, it should secure long-term and stable sources of sustainable bio-based feedstock and aid in implementing carbon dioxide capture from incinerators in waste management. These implications could also apply to chemical industries in other countries and regions with similar constraints.