Assessing the current status of food security under climate variability and the role of household-level adaption strategies near Ghibe III hydroelectric dam, Ethiopia

Abstract The food security problem is exacerbated by low production and crop loss in many parts of the world and Ethiopia in particular. Prior literature less documented the role of innovative adaptation strategies to climate variability in ensuring food security. This study investigated the current status of food security and the role of adaptation strategies in the context of climate unpredictability in the Ghibe III dam area, in Southern Ethiopia. To achieve the intended objective, data were collected from 175 adapters and 209 non-adapters through multi-stage sampling using a questionnaire supplemented with key informant interviews and focus group discussions. A probit regression model was used to determine the factors affecting farmers’ adaptation. Propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to evaluate the impact of the adaptation strategies on food security. Food security was measured by the food balance sheet model (HBSM)). The rainfall anomaly index and Mann–Kendall tests were employed for the analysis of rainfall and temperature. The findings showed that throughout 30 years, temperatures were rising while rainfall was falling. Receiving early warning weather systems, credit services, extension services, family size, and farm size had a significant impact on adaptation strategies at a 1% level. Adapters showed an increase in food security (7–9%) than non-adapters. Adapters consumed 2101.6 mean calories per day/adult equivalent compared to non-adapters who consumed 1151.5 kcal. Conservation agriculture and climate-resilient crop varieties should be implemented by farmers supported by local-level government bodies at large.