Mathematical modeling identifies clotting factor combinations that modify thrombin generation in normal and factor VIII-, IX-, or XI-deficient blood

Background: In healthy individuals, plasma levels of clotting proteins naturally vary within a range of 50% to 150% of their mean values. We do not know how these variations modify thrombin generation. Objectives: To assess the impact of protein level variations on simulated thrombin generation in normal and factor (F)VIII-, FIX-, or FXI-deficient blood. Methods: We used a mathematical model of flow-mediated coagulation to simulate thrombin generation with all possible combinations of clotting protein variations within the normal range and for various tissue factor levels. We selected, analyzed, and ranked combinations that enhanced thrombin generation compared with baseline. Results: Protein variations most strongly affected thrombin generation at intermediate tissue factor levels. Low tissue factor levels prevented coagulation initiation, while high tissue factor levels always triggered thrombin generation. At intermediate levels, we identified protein variations that substantially modified thrombin generation. Low-normal FV shortened lag times and increased thrombin generation, whereas high-normal FV lengthened lag times and reduced thrombin generation. With severe FVIII and FIX deficiencies, low-normal tissue factor pathway inhibitor α and antithrombin amplified the effect of low-normal FV. For moderate FVIII and FIX deficiencies, high-normal tissue factor pathway inhibitor α and antithrombin enhanced the impact of high-normal FV in reducing thrombin production. In normal and FXI-deficient blood, high-normal FVIII and FIX significantly boosted thrombin generation. Conclusion: Our mathematical model predicted how variations in clotting protein levels, within the normal range, could contribute to the variability of bleeding phenotypes observed with clotting factor deficiencies. Our study generated experimentally testable hypotheses that could aid in developing new therapies toward normal hemostasis.