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Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios
- Source :
- International Journal of Health Policy and Management, Vol 11, Iss 3, Pp 334-343 (2022)
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Kerman University of Medical Sciences, 2022.
-
Abstract
- BackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). ResultsUnder scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).ConclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 23225939
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- International Journal of Health Policy and Management
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.5a8e1533f1441b8de1e1010ed60dcd
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.34172/ijhpm.2020.134