Pattern and driver of Rosa roxburghii Tratt suitability and its effect on ecological services in karst desertification control areas

Abstract The eco-industry is an effective path to achieve ecological and economic sustainable development. However, the role played by Rosa roxburghii Tratt (R. roxburghii) industry in karst desertification control still needs to be determined. In this study, we predict the suitability probability and driving variables of R. roxburghii's distribution through a Maximum Entropy model, combining climate, population, vegetation, and soil data, and conducted a sample plot survey in a high-suitability area to explore the role of the R. roxburghii industry in ecological services by using adjacent non-R. roxburghii patches as comparisons. The results showed that South China Karst, with its simultaneous rain and heat climate characteristics, was the most suitable area for the industrialization of R. roxburghii in the world. In South China Karst, the area of no, low, medium, and high suitability zones for R. roxburghii was 4.2 × 105, 6.12 × 105, 4.64 × 105, and 4.42 × 105 km2, respectively, and population distribution was the dominant variable controlling its distribution. The net primary productivity, soil conservation, water conservation, mean species abundance, and aboveground biomass of the R. roxburghii monoculture plot in the high-suitability area were significantly lower than those of adjacent non-R. roxburghii lands and forest patches. Furthermore, the monoculture had higher trade-offs between provision, regulation, and support service. This study found that the monoculture of R. roxburghii industry, dominated by human activities, failed to improve ecological services and exacerbated the trade-offs between services. Therefore, future karst desertification control still needs to follow the agroforestry development path.