Decomposition Analysis of the Evolution of the Local Energy System as a Tool to Assess the Effect of Local Actions: Methodology and Example of Malmö, Sweden

This paper proposes the use of decomposition analysis to assess the effect of local energy-related actions towards climate change mitigation, and thus improve policy evaluation and planning at the local level. The assessment of the impact of local actions has been a challenge, even from a strictly technical perspective. This happens because the total change observed is the result of multiple factors influencing local energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many of them not even influenced by local authorities. A methodology was developed, based on a recently developed decomposition model, that disaggregates the total observed changes in the local energy system into multiple causes/effects (including local socio-economic evolution, technology evolution, higher-level governance frame and local actions). The proposed methodology, including the quantification of the specific effect associated with local actions, is demonstrated with the case study of the municipality of Malmö (Sweden) in the timeframe between 1990 and 2015.