Vegetation greening amplifies shallow soil temperature warming on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Vegetation changes are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, consequently modifying climate feedbacks related to frozen ground thawing and carbon cycling in cold regions. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains diverse alpine ecosystems and the largest area of frozen ground in low–mid latitude regions. Evidence suggests ongoing vegetation greening and permafrost degradation during the past several decades on the TP. However, the effect of vegetation changes on soil thermal regimes on the TP is not well understood. Here, we quantify the response of shallow soil temperature change to vegetation greening on the TP using remote–sensing data, in–situ observations, and physics–based modelling. Our results show that over the past 20 years, vegetation greening on the TP was accompanied a notable decrease in the area of bare land by approximately 0.7% (5000 km2). Annual mean soil temperature showed a significant warming trend of 0.57 °C decade–1 (p