Educational boundaries explain strength and variation in global fertility convergence

Abstract This paper shows that the level and timing of fertility are converging strongly over different measures of educational attainment using 65 years of data from 146 countries. Global convergence patterns are primarily driven by high-income societies, while sub-Saharan Africa is the world region that is converging most slowly, if not converging at all. Most importantly, levels of education matter heavily for explaining strength and variation in global fertility convergence, with two intersecting educational gradients suggesting: (i) stronger convergence over tertiary education followed, in turn, by secondary and primary; (ii) stronger convergence over education completed relative to education attended. Our findings provide important insights for addressing key challenges in global development and demography, and for informing policymakers as they evaluate the suitability of specific educational policies aimed at further narrowing inequalities between societies—such as supporting higher education as well as the successful completion of targeted educational cycles.