China’s recycling potential of large-scale public transport vehicles and its implications

Abstract Transport infrastructure allows society to function. Such systems continuously improve through manufacturing transformation and technology upgrading. However, its metabolism mechanism of material degradation and quantities from consumption to obsolescence remains unclear. Here we estimate the recycling potential of typical large-scale public transport vehicles (LPTV) in China, in particular, predicting the end-of-life quantity of railway and aviation equipment between 2000 and 2050. Their total recycling potential has been experiencing rapid growth. The total obsolescence mass in 2020 exceeded 33 million tons, and it is expected to reach another 74 million tons by 2050, roughly twice the amount in 2020. By 2050, waste LPTV in China will contain at least 72 million tons of steel, 838 kilotons of aluminum, 2539 tons of titanium, and 223 tons of neodymium. We also compare waste LPTV to e-waste and end-of-life private vehicles. Interestingly, their growth of generation quantity indicates a distinct industry succession from an industrial ecological perspective.