Leveraging AI techniques for predicting spatial distribution and determinants of carbon emission in China's Yangtze River Delta

Abstract This study focuses on the prediction and management of carbon emissions (CE) under the backdrop of global warming, with a particular emphasis on developing spatial planning strategies for urban clusters. In this context, we integrate artificial intelligence technologies to devise an optimized spatial analysis method based on the attributes of multi-source, urban-level spatio-temporal big data on CE. This method enhances both the accuracy and interpretability of CE data processing. Our objectives are to accurately analyze the current status of CE, predict the future spatial distribution of urban CE in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and identify key driving factors. We aim to provide pragmatic recommendations for sustainable urban carbon management planning. The findings indicate that: (1) the algorithm designed by us demonstrates excellent fitting capabilities in the analysis of CE data in the YRD, achieving a fitting accuracy of 0.93; (2) it is predicted that from 2025 to 2030, areas with higher CE in the YRD will be primarily concentrated in the 'Provincial Capital Belt' and the 'Heavy Industry Belt'; (3) the economic foundation has been identified as the most significant factor influencing CE in the YRD; (4) projections suggest that CE in the YRD are likely to peak by 2030.