A biological age model based on physical examination data to predict mortality in a Chinese population

Summary: Biological age could be reflective of an individual’s health status and aging degree. Limited estimations of biological aging based on physical examination data in the Chinese population have been developed to quantify the rate of aging. We developed and validated a novel aging measure (Balanced-AGE) based on readily available physical health examination data. In this study, a repeated sub-sampling approach was applied to address the data imbalance issue, and this approach significantly improved the performance of biological age (Balanced-AGE) in predicting all-cause mortality with a 10-year time-dependent AUC of 0.908 for all-cause mortality. This mortality prediction tool was found to be effective across different subgroups by age, sex, smoking, and alcohol consumption status. Additionally, this study revealed that individuals who were underweight, smokers, or drinkers had a higher extent of age acceleration. The Balanced-AGE may serve as an effective and generally applicable tool for health assessment and management among the elderly population.