One‐Year Disability Trajectories and Long‐Term Cardiovascular Events, Recurrent Stroke, and Mortality After Ischemic Stroke

Background Patients with stroke are often affected by varying degrees of functional disability and have different evolution patterns in functional disability. However, little is known about the predictive usefulness of disability changes after stroke. We aimed to describe 1‐year disability trajectories and to assess the associations of longitudinal disability trajectories with 24‐month clinical outcomes after ischemic stroke. Methods and Results A total of 3533 patients with ischemic stroke from CATIS (China Antihypertensive Trial in Acute Ischemic Stroke) were studied. Distinct trajectories of disability were identified by the group‐based trajectory model, as measured by modified Rankin Scale score within 12 months. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations of disability trajectories with 24‐month cardiovascular events and all‐cause mortality. We identified 4 distinct disability trajectories: no significant disability (562 participants [15.9%]), slight disability to recovery (1575 participants [44.6%]), severe to moderate disability (1087 participants [30.8%]), and persistent severe disability (309 participants [8.7%]). Compared with no significant disability trajectory, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of patients within the persistent heavy–severe trajectory were 2.63 (1.20–5.76) for cardiovascular events, 2.55 (1.12–5.79) for recurrent stroke, and 6.10 (2.22–16.72) for all‐cause mortality; notably, the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for patients within the severe to moderate disability trajectory were 1.99 (1.01–3.94) for cardiovascular events and 1.85 (1.03–3.33) for the composite outcome of cardiovascular events and all‐cause mortality. Conclusions Functional disability trajectories within 12 months after stroke onset were associated with the risk of 24‐month adverse outcomes. Patients with persistent severe disability or severe to moderate disability had higher risk of cardiovascular events and all‐cause mortality. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01840072