Protein-energy Malnutrition Incidence in China: Trend in 1990-2019 and Future Trend in 2020-2029

Background Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) is a common nutritional deficiency. With the change of lifestyle and eating habits, people pay increasing attention to nutritional health problems, and PEM may have different effects on the health of different age groups. Objective To analyze the overall and age-specific trends of PEM incidence in 1990-2019 and to predict its incidence in 2020-2029 in China. Methods The data of this study were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, involving mortality indicators, and incidence indicators in 18 age groups (ranged from 0 to over 85 years grouped by an interval of 5 years) of PEM in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized rates were calculated using the world standard population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and annual average percentage change (AAPC) of the incidence rate and 95% confidence interval, and to describe the temporal trend. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence of PEM in China from 2020 to 2029. Results (1) In 2019, the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of PEM in the whole population of China was 1 996.5/100 000, and that in males (2 444.7/100 000) was higher than that in females (1 536.0/100 000) . The SIR of PEM in the whole population in China was lower than that of the world standard population (2 099.4/100 000) , and that of PEM in Chinese males was higher than that in the world standard male population (2 304.0/100 000) . The incidence of PEM was highest in