Prediction of need for bowel resection in acute superior mesenteric artery occlusion: A retrospective study of 48 Japanese patients

Abstract Aim This study aimed to predict cases of acute superior mesenteric artery (SMA) occlusion requiring bowel resection using occlusion site and time from symptom onset to diagnosis at five Japanese institutions. Advances in imaging, endovascular treatment, and perioperative management have improved the clinical outcomes of patients with acute SMA occlusion; however, in clinical practice it remains difficult to effectively determine patients requiring bowel resection. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 48 patients (mean age: 82.5 y; male: 37.5%) diagnosed with acute SMA occlusion between June 2009 and August 2018. Background data of patients who required and did not require bowel resection were compared. A multivariable predictive model was developed using the time from symptom onset to diagnosis and whether SMA occlusion was proximal, including the origin of the middle colic artery. Results Fifteen patients (31.3%) died during the hospital stay. Atrial fibrillation (83.3%) was the most common comorbidity. The median time from symptom onset to diagnosis was 13.0 (interquartile range, 4.75–24.0) h. Laparotomy, bowel resection, and thrombus embolectomy were performed in 41 (85.4%), 26 (54.2%), and 21 (43.8%) patients, respectively. A logistic regression model achieved 78.6% sensitivity in predicting cases not requiring bowel resection. Proximal occlusion was significantly associated with the requirement for bowel resection (P = .039). Conclusion The time from symptom onset to diagnosis and occlusion site contributed to high sensitivity in determining the need for bowel resection in patients with acute SMA occlusion. Further prospective studies are warranted to investigate the clinical impact of this model.