Residual Volume of Lymph Nodes During Chemoradiotherapy Based Nomogram to Predict Survival of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patient Receiving Induction Chemotherapy

PurposeTo accurately stratify nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients who were benefit from induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by chemoradiotherapy (CCRT), we established residual volume of lymph nodes during chemoradiotherapy based nomogram to predict survival for NPC patients.MethodsCox regression analysis were used to evaluate predictive effects of tumor volume parameters. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the prognostic factors, and nomogram models were developed to predict survival of NPC patients receiving IC followed by CCRT.ResultsCompared with other tumor volumetric parameters, midRT GTVnd was the best predictive factor for OS (HR: 1.043, 95%CI: 1.031-1.055), PFS (HR: 1.040, 95%CI: 1.030- 1.051), and DMFS (HR: 1.046, 95%CI: 1.034 – 1.059) according to the HR of Cox regression analysis. Based on multivariate analysis, three nomograms included midRT GTVnd were constructed to predict 4-year survival. The C-index of nomograms for each survival endpoints were as follow (training cohort vs. validation cohort): 0.746 vs. 0.731 for OS; 0.747 vs. 0.735 for PFS; 0.768 vs. 0.729 for DMFS, respectively. AUC showed a good discriminative ability. Calibration curves demonstrated a consistence between actual results and predictions. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomograms had better clinical predictive effects than current TNM staging system.ConclusionWe identified the best volumetric indicator associated with prognosis was the residual volume of lymph nodes at the fourth week of chemoradiotherapy for patients receiving IC followed by CCRT. We developed and validated three nomograms to predict specific probability of 4-year OS, PFS and DMFS for NPC patient receiving IC followed by CCRT.