Building sustainable futures: the bio-based fertilizer case-study.

Bio-based fertilizers (BBFs) can be a solution for converting agricultural waste into new products useful for increasing organic matter in the soil, thus reducing the consumption of mineral fertilizers. This can contribute to the ecological transition launched by the European Commission for the coming decades. Scenario analysis is an effective tool to assess the factors that can affect the development of the agri-food supply chain, evaluating the effects of their possible evolutions. The aim of this work is to draw plausible future scenarios for the BBF supply chain and to strengthen the consistency evaluation process of these scenarios. We built the scenarios considering both the literature and findings from stakeholder consultations. We then verified their consistency by adopting the Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) method, along with other techniques to better evaluate the consistency and plausibility of the narratives. The analysis provides stakeholders with information to evaluate possible future trends in the BBF supply chain. Monitoring the evolution of the identified drivers and maintaining constant and periodic discussions among stakeholders constitute the prerequisites for supporting the desirable future development of BBFs.