Machine learning based prediction for oncologic outcomes of renal cell carcinoma after surgery using Korean Renal Cell Carcinoma (KORCC) database

Abstract We developed a novel prediction model for recurrence and survival in patients with localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after surgery and a novel statistical method of machine learning (ML) to improve accuracy in predicting outcomes using a large Asian nationwide dataset, updated KOrean Renal Cell Carcinoma (KORCC) database that covered data for a total of 10,068 patients who had received surgery for RCC. After data pre-processing, feature selection was performed with an elastic net. Nine variables for recurrence and 13 variables for survival were extracted from 206 variables. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was used for the training data set to solve the imbalance problem. We applied the most of existing ML algorithms introduced so far to evaluate the performance. We also performed subgroup analysis according to the histologic type. Diagnostic performances of all prediction models achieved high accuracy (range, 0.77–0.94) and F1-score (range, 0.77–0.97) in all tested metrics. In an external validation set, high accuracy and F1-score were well maintained in both recurrence and survival. In subgroup analysis of both clear and non-clear cell type RCC group, we also found a good prediction performance.