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Increasing risk from landfalling tropical cyclone-heatwave compound events to coastal and inland China

Authors :
Jie Wu
Yang Chen
Zhen Liao
Xuejie Gao
Panmao Zhai
Yamin Hu
Source :
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 10, p 105007 (2022)
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
IOP Publishing, 2022.

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and heatwaves are amongst the most deadly and costly natural hazards. Despite considerable advances in understanding each of them, their occurrences in rapid sequence (e.g. in a week) that introduce disproportionately large impacts to infrastructure and human health have received far less attention. Based on dynamical downscaling simulations, we project that currently rare landfalling TC-heatwave compound events would be five to ten times more frequent in coastal Southeast China, and migrate northward and westward to the intact interior. It is the substantial increase in heatwaves that contributes most to the projected increase in frequency and novel emergence of compound events. There would be higher fraction of severer compound events composed of either intense TCs (in the top 10% historically) or exceptional heatwaves (above the historical 99.9th percentile), with coastal Southeast China even bracing for out-of-ordinary combinations of the two. On top of the unprecedented frequency, intensity and land exposure, future emergence of unseasonal compound events in South and Southeast China would further overwhelm local adaptive capacities.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
17489326
Volume :
17
Issue :
10
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Environmental Research Letters
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.763e43b83cb8423b9f87f2de134e1050
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9747