The Ecological Risks in Arid Zones from a Production–Living–Ecological Space Perspective: A Case Study of the Tuha Region in Xinjiang, China

The ecological and environmental problems of arid zones have become an urgent global concern. Current research on ecological risk is based mainly on the dominant functions of land use, with a primary focus on land use landscape projections and less consideration of potential risks to ecosystems, system resilience and interactions between nature and future sustainable development. In this study, a potential–connectivity–resilience ecological risk assessment model based on the SDGs was constructed using multisource data to spatially quantify indicators at the grid scale in the Turpan and Hami regions of Xinjiang, China. This model was used as a basis for studying ecological risk in arid zones from a production–living–ecological space (PLES) perspective. The results revealed that, during the period 2000–2020, PLESs in the Turpan and Hami regions presented significant spatial similarity, with an increasing trend in overall risk. The production space in the Turpan and Hami regions showed a parabolic trend of increasing and then decreasing, whereas the living space and ecological space in the Hami region showed continuous linear upward trends. The state of ecological security in the Turpan and Hami regions is gradually deteriorating, and comprehensive ecological protection and restoration measures are urgently needed to rationally allocate the structure and layout of the production-–living-–ecological space. The study of ecological risk from a PLES perspective not only helps in fully understanding the development trend of the arid zone; it also provides new ideas and methods for evaluating regional ecological environmental safety and scientific references for formulating regional sustainable development, ecological risk prevention and control and the rational allocation of resources.