Characterization of Inclination Analysis for Predicting Onset of Heart Failure from Primary Care Electronic Medical Records

The aim of this study is to characterize the performance of an inclination analysis for predicting the onset of heart failure (HF) from routinely collected clinical biomarkers extracted from primary care electronic medical records. A balanced dataset of 698 patients (with/without HF), including a minimum of five longitudinal measures of nine biomarkers (body mass index, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, glycated hemoglobin, low-density and high-density lipoproteins, total cholesterol, and triglycerides) is used. The proposed algorithm achieves an accuracy of 0.89 (sensitivity of 0.89, specificity of 0.90) to predict the inclination of biomarkers (i.e., their trend towards a ‘survival’ or ‘collapse’ as defined by an inclination analysis) on a labeled, balanced dataset of 40 patients. Decision trees trained on the predicted inclination of biomarkers have significantly higher recall (0.69 vs. 0.53) and significantly higher negative predictive value (0.60 vs. 0.55) than those trained on the average values computed from the measures of biomarkers available before the onset of the disease, suggesting that an inclination analysis can help identify the onset of HF in the primary care patient population from routinely available clinical data. This exploratory study provides the basis for further investigations of inclination analyses to identify at-risk patients and generate preventive measures (i.e., personalized recommendations to reverse the trend of biomarkers towards collapse).