Estimating daily surface downward shortwave radiation over rugged terrain without bright surface at 30 m on clear-sky days using CERES data

In this study, the authors propose a model, called the Daily Downward Shortwave Radiation Random Forest Model over Rugged Terrain (DSRMT), to accurately calculate the downward shortwave radiation over a terrain without bright surface on clear days at a daily scale (DSRdaily−rugged). It was built by using the random forest method based on the comprehensive samples from CERES4_SYN1deg_Ed4A within 17 typical mountainous regions. DSRMT could directly estimate DSRdaily-rugged from the instantaneous direct and diffuse solar radiation on a flat surface during 10:30–14:30hrs on each day by comparing with the terrain factors from a digital elevation model, broadband albedo from the Global Land Surface Satellite, and ancillary information. The in-situ validation results showed that it generally delivered superior performance in estimating DSRdaily-rugged at any time during 10:30–14:30hrs, especially at noon, yielding a validated root mean-squared error (RMSE) of 24.90–29.22 Wm−2 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 19.16–22.94 Wm−2, and the average weighted DSRdaily-rugged were usually more accurate with the RMSE and MAE of 21.63 and 17.14 Wm−2. Overall, DSRMT was found to deliver satisfactory performance because of its high accuracy, robustness, ease of implementation, and efficiency, so it has the strong potential to be widely used in practice.