Unveiling the Dynamics and Influence of Water Footprints in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Xinjiang, China

A prerequisite for the rational development and utilization of regional water resources is the measurement of water stress. In this study, from the perspective of water footprints, we took the proportion of the agricultural water footprint within the total water resource usage of Xinjiang (hereafter referred to as XJ) as an example to measure its water stress index and explore the state of water stress in the region and its corresponding driving factors. The ESDA method was applied to characterize the spatial patterns of and correlations with water stress. The effects of different factors on the spatial differentiation between the water footprint and water stress were quantified using the LMDI and geoprobes, respectively. The results showed that (1) both the agricultural water footprint and the water stress index in XJ showed an upward trend, the spatial distribution of water stress was uneven, and the regional pressure difference between the east and the west was greater than that between the north and the south; (2) the water stress index has an obvious negative spatial correlation, fluctuations in its discrete nature have been enhanced, and the number of spatially correlated prefectures is decreasing; (3) water consumption of CNY 10,000 GDP, GDP per capita, and total CO2 emissions have the most significant impact on the evolution of the agricultural water footprint in XJ. Meanwhile, spatial variations in water stress are mainly determined by the area of cultivation, the area of natural oasis, and the proportion of water used in agriculture. Analysis of the characteristics of and factors influencing water stress in XJ from the perspective of its agricultural water footprint provides a new perspective for further analyzing the actual state of the water footprint and water stress in XJ and supplies a reference basis for the decision-makers of the XJ government.