Spatial and Temporal Variability of Soil Moisture and Its Driving Factors in the Northern Agricultural Regions of China

Soil moisture, as an important variable affecting water–heat exchange between land and atmosphere, is an important feedback to climate change. Soil moisture is of great concern in Northern China, where arable land is extensive, but water resources are distributed unevenly and extremely sensitive to climate change. Using measured soil moisture data collected by the China Meteorological Administration from 164 stations during 1980–2021, we explored the drivers of soil moisture variation by analyzing its spatiotemporal variability using linear regression, partial correlation analysis, and geostatistical methods. The results indicated that (1) soil moisture increased from northwest to southeast in Northern China, with the lowest soil moisture in the IM; (2) the overall trend of soil moisture in most regions decreased, especially in the arid northwest and northeast China. However, soil moisture in some regions began to increase gradually in recent years, such as in northwestern Xinjiang and the central-eastern part of IM; and (3) soil moisture in the whole region was negatively correlated with temperature and sunshine duration and positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity. The results of the study can provide valuable guidance for timely agricultural irrigation and the adjustment of cropping structures, thereby ensuring agricultural production and food security.