The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China

Abstract. Hepatitis B virus infection is a major global public health concern. This study explored the epidemic characteristics and tendency of hepatitis B in 31 provinces of mainland China, constructed a SARIMA model for prediction, and provided corresponding preventive measures. Monthly hepatitis B case data from mainland China from 2013 to 2020 were obtained from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Monthly data from 2013 to 2020 were used to build the SARIMA model and data from 2021 were used to test the model. Between 2013 and 2020, 9,177,313 hepatitis B cases were reported in mainland China. SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model and its residual was white noise. It was used to predict the number of hepatitis B cases from January to December 2021, and the predicted values for 2021 were within the 95% confidence interval. This study suggests that the SARIMA model simulated well based on epidemiological trends of hepatitis B in mainland China. The SARIMA model is a feasible tool for monitoring hepatitis B virus infections in mainland China.