MAP ESTIMATION OF BLACKOUT PROBABILITY IN ISOLATED ELECTRICAL POWER GRIDS: A CASE STUDY OF EASTERN RUSSIA

In this article we review the method of representation an electrical power grid as a graph. Then we state a definition of structural vulnerability as the main feature of electric power grid reliability, which allows to evaluate the blackout probability. We have created the methodic of locating critical element (nodes) by using GIS-technologies and tested it on studied regions. As the result, we have located zones of high and low structural vulnerability. In addition, some priority areas for investigation with the help of the network model are given.